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67th Golden Globes Preview — Film

January 17, 2010

The 67th Annual Golden Globe Awards will air Sunday at 8 PM EST on NBC, officially kicking off the entertainment awards season of 2010 (for reasons that I think are pretty obvious, I refuse to include the People’s Choice Awards).

I’ve always enjoyed the Golden Globes more than just about any other awards show every year. They always seem to be less hardcore-artsy than the Oscar’s and it’s the only chance all year to see a legitimate show that balances TV and film awards. And after the great year in film that 2009 was and with a brilliant host choice like Ricky Gervais, I have high hopes for this show.

So without any further ado, here is my preview of the film section of the show complete with my predictions, my hopes, and my snub/surprise list.

Read on for the breakdown…

Best Screenplay

Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell – District 9

Mark Boal – The Hurt Locker

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Nancy Meyers – It’s Complicated

Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner – Up in the Air

Should Win: For me, this is a tough category to pick a winner from. If I had to be honest and give an answer on the spot, I’d have to go with Inglourious Basterds just because I believe Quentin Tarantino’s script was the best thing he’s done in his entire career with the exception of Pulp Fiction. But it’s the only nomination District 9 received and I have a hard time coming to terms with the fact that they’re more than likely going home with nothing. Up in the Air comes in a close second to Quentin Tarantino and I would be almost as happy if Jason Reitman came away with this one.

Will Win: As far as I know, this one is a toss up. I’ll admit I’d be legitimately surprised if they didn’t give it to either Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. I feel like both of these films might be let down in the Best Director and Best Motion Picture categories and so I’m glad that they both have a good chance here.

Snubs & Surprises: District 9’s nomination came as quite a surprise to me, but it feels like more filler than anything with a legitimate chance of winning. In terms of snubs, I’m sure many will be scratching their heads over why Precious wasn’t nominated. And personally– even though I have yet to see It’s Complicated– I have no doubt that Invictus would have been a better choice to replace it. But I suppose I should just be thankful that Avatar didn’t get a nomination for its screenplay too after such atrocious dialogue throughout most of the film.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker

James Cameron – Avatar

Clint Eastwood – Invictus

Jason Reitman – Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: If there was ever a more stacked list of nominees for Best Director than there is this year, I haven’t heard about it. James Cameron, Clint Eastwood, and Quentin Tarantino are three of the biggest directors of the generation and Jason Reitman (Juno, Thank You for Smoking) is one of the most notable up-and-coming directors of the decade. And if you had shown me this a couple months ago, I never would have guessed that out of these five, I’d be rooting for Kathryn Bigelow to take the award home. She’d be the first woman director to win the award and she’d certainly deserve it. To be honest, this is the one category where anyone could win and I’d feel like they deserved it– with perhaps the exception of James Cameron, but only because I simply can’t stand him as a person. Quentin Tarantino would be my secondary pick.

Will Win: Again, I could see any of these five winning and I wouldn’t be too surprised. My top prediction would be in favor of Kathryn Bigelow with all of the hype she’s been getting after everyone realized how much of a masterpiece The Hurt Locker really was.

Best Animated Film

Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs
Columbia Pictures and Sony Pictures Animation; Sony Pictures Releasing

Coraline
Laika, Inc.; Focus Features

Fantastic Mr. Fox
American Empirical Picture; Twentieth Century Fox

The Princess and the Frog
Walt Disney Pictures/Walt Disney Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Up
Walt Disney Pictures/PIXAR Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures

Should Win: I feel pretty unqualified to really judge this one, having only seen two of the five films nominated, but I’ve heard great things about all of them. It’s not every year that all five animated films in the running get raving critical acclaim, and so far, I can vouch for the hype surrounding both Coraline and Up. And basing my vote purely on those two that I’ve seen, I’d have to give everything to Up. It lives up to the hype (or at least comes close) and I haven’t heard of many people who have been disappointed by it.

Will Win: I don’t think there’s much doubt here. Up will be the name they call for this one. It’s been on far too many top 10 lists and award ballots to come up short at the Globes. Virtually the only other option that might even give Pixar a reason to worry is Fantastic Mr. Fox, which has received a surprising level of acclaim as well. But at this point, I’m not sure it’s even worth considering.

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Matt Damon – Invictus

Woody Harrelson – The Messenger

Christopher Plummer – The Last Station

Stanley Tucci – The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

Should Win: I would be absolutely stunned if this award didn’t go to Cristoph Waltz after his stellar performance as Col. Hans Landa in Inglourious Basterds. While I was impressed with Matt Damon in Invictus and with Woody Harrelson in The Messenger, I can’t fathom seeing anyone else but Cristoph win this thing.

Will Win: I refuse to believe that the HFPA would do something as horrid as take away this award from Cristoph Waltz. It’s his to lose and he’s not going to lose it. Again, nothing against great performances from Woody Harrelson and Matt Damon, but Hans Landa stole every one of his scenes in Inglourious Basterds.

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Penélope Cruz – Nine

Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air

Mo’nique – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Julianne Moore – A Single Man

Should Win: If I had to choose a winner for this category, I might end up flipping a coin. Anna Kendrick vs. Mo’nique. I believe Mo’nique’s role in Precious naturally gave her more room to wow crowds and I hate to let that give her an edge, but I don’t think there’s any way around it. Perhaps Mo’nique does deserve it more, but that’s not to say that Kendrick doesn’t deserve it.

Will Win: I can promise you that Mo’nique and Anna Kendrick are the only two that need to even show up for this category. It’ll be one of them and more than likely, it’ll be Mo’nique. Critics are raving about her and her performance was certainly the strongest point of Precious, but the HFPA has apparently loved both of these films and this might be the one chance to give Up in the Air at least one award. Expect Mo’nique to win it but don’t be shocked if Anna Kendrick turns out to be the underdog winner.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Sandra Bullock – The Proposal

Marion Cotillard – Nine

Julia Roberts – Duplicity

Meryl Streep – It’s Complicated

Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia

Should Win: This is another category that I have a tough time judging, having only seen 2 of the nominated films. But in my own defense, I’ve heard most say that you only need to see Julie & Julia to know who should and will win this category. It may be a bit of a weak set of performances to choose from in the first place, but Meryl Streep wholeheartedly deserves this one.

Will Win: The fact that Julia Roberts showed up on this list for a performance that many might not even remember just goes to show that this year was a pretty big let-down when it comes to quality performances in comedies. I don’t think there’s even much room for an upset. Meryl Streep will win it, for sure. I’d say there’s about a 90% chance she’ll win it for Julie & Julia and a 10% chance she could win it for It’s Complicated. But realistically, I don’t see the HFPA giving her the award for It’s Complicated when they could give it to her for Julie & Julia.

Snubs & Surprises: Even though there weren’t exactly many other options to choose from this year, I’m not sure how many people would have Julia Roberts to fill one of the nominee spots. In my opinion, Zooey Deschanel in (500) Days of Summer would have been a much better choice. Apparently, that’s just me.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

Matt Damon – The Informant!

Daniel Day-Lewis – Nine

Robert Downey Jr. – Sherlock Holmes

Joseph Gordon-Levitt – (500) Days of Summer

Michael Stuhlbarg – A Serious Man

Should Win: I’d really like to see such a spectacular young actor like Joseph Gordon-Levitt take home a Golden Globe, but I can’t help but admit that perhaps Michael Stuhlbarg gave a more deserving performance. I wish I had gotten around to seeing The Informant to be able to consider Matt Damon too, but I’ve heard his performance was exceptional. I’d give my vote to Michael Stuhlbarg.

Will Win: This might be one of the toughest to predict. It seems to be a race between Stuhlbarg and Gordon-Levitt, but Matt Damon will no doubt get some votes and Daniel Day-Lewis might steal some away. But when it comes down to it, I think it’ll be Joseph Gordon-Levitt. Look for Michael Stuhlbarg as a possible upset and Matt Damon surely isn’t out of the question.

Snubs & Surprises: While certainly not surprising, I’d consider Ben Foster’s absence in this category after his performance in The Messenger to be quite an unfortunate snub– particularly since Daniel Day-Lewis was still nominated after Nine completely tanked.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Emily Blunt – The Young Victoria

Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side

Helen Mirren – The Last Station

Carey Mulligan – An Education

Gabourey Sidibe – Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

Should Win: For me, it’s no competition. I absolutely loved Carey Mulligan in An Education, a movie I thought easily deserved a Best Picture nomination over Avatar. While I did enjoy Sandra Bullock’s performance in The Blind Side, I didn’t think it was anything spectacular and I didn’t think it was necessarily the selling point of the film. Gabourey Sidibe was great in Precious, but Mo’nique was the real star of that show. I have always liked Emily Blunt and I wish I had gotten a chance to see The Young Victoria, but alas, I did not and even if I had, I’m not sure it would have surpassed Carey Mulligan’s performance.

Will Win: All the hype surrounding Sandra Bullock has got to amount to something. Unfortunately, she’s the “box office queen” of the year and I can’t help but think that the hype surrounding her performance from The Proposal might somehow give her an unfair advantage. But I’m tired of hearing that she’s due for a big award like this and I can only hope the HFPA will do the right thing and give it to a more-deserving nominee like Carey Mulligan.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart

George Clooney – Up in the Air

Colin Firth – A Single Man

Morgan Freeman – Invictus

Tobey Maguire – Brothers

Should Win: This is another tough decision for me. I haven’t seen likely-favorite Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart and so I might be slightly biased against him, but I’m really rooting for George Clooney here. He had the better movie and while some might complain that he just plays his typical persona in Up in the Air, the performance was still there. I thought Morgan Freeman was brilliant as Nelson Mandela in Invictus and Tobey Maguire gave something powerful in perhaps his best performance ever, but I think I’d have to be dreaming to assume they have a chance against the Jeff Bridges/George Clooney vote pot.

Will Win: After George Clooney seemed to be a sure favorite for so long, Jeff Bridges virtually came out of nowhere and stole the award hype. He has a good chance of taking this one home and I’d actually be surprised if Clooney managed to get it.

Snubs & Surprises: Tobey Maguire’s nomination came as quite a pleasant surprise to me and even though he has a 0% chance of coming out on top, I’m still glad to see his performance getting some recognition.

Best Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical

(500) Days of Summer
Watermark Pictures; Fox Searchlight Pictures

The Hangover
Warner Bros. Pictures; Warner Bros. Pictures

It’s Complicated
Relativity Media, Scott Rudin Productions; Universal Pictures

Julie & Julia
Columbia Pictures; Sony Pictures Releasing

Nine
The Weinstein Company/Relativity Media/Lucamar Productions/Marc Platt Productions; The Weinstein Company

Should Win: Oh, how I wish the HFPA would placate me at least just this once by giving The Hangover it’s deserved best comedy of the year title. However, (500) Days of Summer was also fantastic and I’d still be more than happy to see it win. I’m not sure if I can say the same for Meryl Streep’s duo of films though.

Will Win: So many people seem to have different opinions about who will win here and it’s quite possibly the hardest category of all to predict. Ironically, the only nominee that was really ever the favorite was Nine and that was before the critics devoured and bashed it. The Hangover seems like such it would be such an odd choice for such a prestigious award and I have a hard time believing it has a legitimate chance. But it did win at the Critic’s Choice Awards, so maybe all hope is not quite lost. Out of all of the nominees, Julie & Julia seems like it would be the most typical pick, but I think the acclaim for it is mostly due to Meryl Streep’s performance more-so than the quality of the actual movie. And if anything, the HFPA’s love for Meryl Streep will only hurt her films by splitting votes between them. Instead, my prediction will have to be in favor of (500) Days of Summer. I wouldn’t completely rule out a surprise win for The Hangover, but it’ll certainly be just that– a surprise.

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Avatar
Lightstorm Entertainment; Twentieth Century Fox

The Hurt Locker
Voltage Pictures; Summit Entertainment

Inglourious Basterds
The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures/A Band Apart/Zehnte Babelsberg GmbH Production; The Weinstein Company/Universal Pictures

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
A Lee Daniels Entertainment / Smokewood Entertainment Group Production; Lionsgate

Up in the Air
Paramount Pictures; Paramount Pictures

Should Win: There are so many good nominees here, it’s almost too hard to choose just one that’s more deserving than the others. If I can say anything with certainty, it’s that Avatar is the only film out of these 5 that doesn’t deserve it. In terms of technical Preferably, I’d split my vote into thirds and give part of it to The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, and Up in the Air. But taking into special consideration ensemble performances, budgets, and cinematography, I’d have to decide on The Hurt Locker. I’ll either be very happy at the results of this category or I’ll be furious. And the odds are in favor of the former.

Will Win: Again, this one is almost as tough as the Best Comedy/Musical category. The Hurt Locker seems to be the favorite with critics but I’m not sure how much similarly it was received by the HFPA. Up in the Air certainly still has a good chance and might be the film to beat. Precious appears to be completely out of the running and Mo’nique might be the only one coming away with an award tonight. It seems to be a long-shot for Inglourious Basterds at this point and all it might prove to do is pull votes away from the other nominees. As much as it pains me to say this, Avatar also has an enormous chance at a win thanks to HFPA members who are looking to glorify James Cameron’s technical and visual accomplishments. I’ve still got to go with Up in the Air as my prediction as I think it’s more the type for the Golden Globes and it prided itself on storyline and great acting– two things that Avatar was severely lacking, in my personal opinion.

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